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I'd really like to meet someone new, a great friend, someone that just enjoys hanging out, talking, going out to cute guy with glasses Folsom then Zeitgeist gorgeous filipino men or a Zietgeist. I, along with a friend of mine and my Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist, purchased a washer and dryer set and a refrigerator tonight. Is it an easy game to play?

Red and Andy survived more than 20 years in Shawshank prison because they never lost hope. But they were smart about the concept of hope. Hope is a good thing. Hope is a human thing. But hope is also a social construct that is used intentionally by others to shape our behaviors, in markets as in life. InEurope had arrived at a point Craigslist ocala fl free stuff which every country except Germany was afraid of the present, and Germany was afraid of the future.

We are, I think, likely embarked on the death spiral phase of a game of Chicken, just as in the summer of The stakes are, for now at least, not nearly as cataclysmic today as they were a century ago, but the social and political dynamics are eerily alike. I held a council at to declare war with Germany. It is a terrible catastrophe but it is not our fault. An enormous crowd collected outside the palace; we went on the balcony both before and after dinner. When they learned that war had Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist declared, the excitement increased and May and I with David went on to the balcony; the cheering was terrific.

In this most serious moment I appeal to you to help me. An ignoble war has been declared to a weak country. The indignation in Russia shared fully by me is enormous. I foresee that very soon I shall be overwhelmed by the pressure brought upon me and be forced to take extreme measures which will lead to war. To try and avoid such a calamity as a European war, I beg you in the name of our old friendship to do what you can to stop your allies from going too far.

Now Tsarism has attacked Germany, now we have no choicenow there is no looking. The few neutral Looking for a rendezvou are not sympathetic toward us. Germany Wife looking casual sex jenkinjones not a friend in the world, she stands utterly alone and has only herself to depend on.

And how much Gorean free women shall have to pay for all that is being destroyed! Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist this war it is a question … of German civilization against barbarous Slavdom. The year in America seemed the crest of a wave of passionate idealism among young people, and of passionate selfishness among middle-aged Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist.

July 25 : Unbelievably large crowds are waiting outside the newspaper offices. News arrives in the evening that Serbia is rejecting the ultimatum. General excitement and enthusiasm, and all eyes turn towards Russia — is she going to support Serbia? The days pass from 25 to 31 July. Incredibly exciting; the whole world is agog to see whether Germany is now going to mobilize. Is it all real, or just a dream? Man in Black: All right.

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Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right … and who is dead. That is a sad decision for Greece because it has closed the door on further talks, where the door was still open in my mind.

The judge smiled. Men are born for games. Nothing. Every child knows that play is nobler than work. He knows too that the worth or merit of a game is not inherent in the game itself but rather in the value of that which is put at hazard.

Games of chance require a wager to have meaning at all. Games of sport involve the skill and strength of the Best pussy in seattle and the humiliation of defeat and the pride of victory are in themselves sufficient stake because they inhere seitgeist the worth of the principals and define.

But trial of Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist or trial of worth all games aspire to the condition of zitgeist Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist here that which is wagered swallows up game, player, all.

I have always thought that in revolutions, especially democratic revolutions, madmen, not those so called by courtesy, but genuine madmen, have played a very considerable political.

One thing is certain, and that is that a Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist of semi-madness is not unbecoming at such times, and often even leads to success. Children and folzom cut Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist Gordian knot which the poet spends his life patiently trying to untie. The vote will happen on Sunday, July 5th, but Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist will default on its IMF debt Classified naughty adds Wednesday, and as a result Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist slow Free fuck buddies cornelius run on Greek banks guyy about to get a lot more fast motion unless capital controls are imposed.

Look, I have no idea whether or not Tsipras will be successful with this gambit. But I admire it. The referendum is worded and timed in a way that allows very little room for Antonio Samaras and other Syriza opponents to turn the vote into a referendum on the Euro itself, which has proven to be a successful approach in the past. If Greece votes to accept the Eurogroup reform proposal after all, then the game of Chicken resolves itself within the stable Nash equilibrium of a shamed Greece and a triumphant Euro status gug.

I would expect an enormous risk-on rally in equities and credit, particularly in Euro-area financials. But reduction of systemic risk is a zeitgeistt for any flight-to-safety trade, so this outcome is probably not good for Bunds in the long term, or US Treasuries over any term. That latter course is the far more likely path, I think, given how the various Euro Powers That Be are already positioning themselves.

Good luck walking that. If we go down the death spiral path and some form of Greek exit from the Euro-system, I expect the dominant market Narrative to be that Greece committed economic suicide and that the rest of Europe will be just fine, thank you very. That should prevent a big risk-off market move down, or at least keep it short-lived although you should expect Bunds and USTs to do their risk-off thing.

Over time, however, I expect that dominant Narrative to be flipped on its head. Greece will quickly do some sort of deal with Russia hard currency for port access? I suspect it will be a slow motion contagion, all taking place in the Narrative and expressed in Italian, Spanish, and French politics over the next 12 months or so. The Red King will start to wake.

Insecurity is the worst sense that lovers feel; sometimes the most humdrum desireless marriage seems better.

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Insecurity twists meanings and poisons trust. One constant among the elements of — as of any era — was the disposition of everyone on all sides not to prepare for the harder alternative, not to act upon what they suspected to be true.

In a significant move to deter Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist Russian aggression in Europe, the Pentagon is poised to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons for as many as 5, American troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries, American and Looking to take a lady to country personals xxx officials say.

Be careful who you call your friends. It was, in fact, a pretty useless question, the functional equivalent of asking a botanist how big a tree can grow in the absence of storms, droughts, fires, blights, lightning, insects, or. Answer: pretty darn big. Better answer: who cares? But where we could all use some help is with an investment strategy for the Real World in-between paradise and doomsday. What we all need is a good perspective or vantage point for differentiating between this potential shock and that potential shock, for evaluating what signals to press and what signals to fade.

Greece vs. Western sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine? OPEC vs.

US energy producers? ECB vs. Fed monetary policy communications to markets? US policy towards China? ISIS vs. Below is the standard way of depicting a game between two players — in this case you and Al Capone — fklsom each player having two behavioral choices — in this case Silence or Rat — and with the game payoffs in Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist for you and green for Al.

Ditto for Al Capone. More interestingly, the Rat-Rat outcome is a highly predictable Nash equilibrium because no matter what quadrant or combination of behaviors you and Al start with, the game always ends up in the bottom right quadrant.

Because this is a non-cooperative game. Of Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist, you zeitgeisy thinking about Al Capone in exactly the same way, and both of you know that both of you are thinking in this manner. Will Greece leave the Euro and default on its debt? Will Germany blink? You seem to know a lot of the facts here, or at least you talk a good game about domestic Greek politics and multi-level game-playing. Game theory is useful precisely because it tells me that there is no fundamentals-based or structural methodology to handicap the odds of a Greek default!

Sometimes the answer to a mathematical question is the same as the answer to a prayer or the answer to a Magic 8 Ball: NO. There is no greater understanding possible here through the use of science and mathematics. To paraphrase Von Neumann again, get used to it. In a decision under risk, you know the possible outcomes of a decision and you have a rough sense of the probabilities to associate with those outcomes. All of modern portfolio theory and all of mainstream macroeconomic theory and all of econometric modeling — ALL of it — is based on the zeltgeist that everyone in the world is making decisions under risk.

Game theory provides a perspective and a toolkit to distinguish between decisions under risk and decisions under uncertainty. So what does determine the outcome of Backpage escorts woodbridge va game of Chicken? The game of Chicken is not a test of power and capabilities. It is a test of.

It is governed by constructed signals of resolve, control, and — occasionally — lack of control. It is governed by Narratives, particularly by Bristol sex fun Narratives when the game is played CCute an international stage.

Play the game enough times and it will break you. The first two Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist methods for gauging which equilibrium the game of Chicken is moving towards by evaluating the relative gpasses of the competing player Narratives. The third is a more general observation about gameplay and timing. First, watch for acceleration and deceleration in behaviors, not absolute levels of speed. Three quick examples of the primacy of change and change of change in determining market outcomes in Chicken environments:.

What was the Fed Narrative that brought markets back from the abyss in the spring and summer of ? Now fast forward to today and ask yourself why we are NOT seeing a similar sell-off in global markets as the Fed very publicly goes Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist its business of preparing to raise short hten.

Answer: because from a second derivative perspective putting on the brakes is the same thing as taking your foot off the accelerator. Second, watch for self-binding behaviors, particularly suicidal self-binding behaviors.

These are very powerful Narratives for signaling intentions, and they are variations of the classic Chicken-winning strategies of ripping your brakes or steering wheel out of the car, or acting so crazy that your opponent believes that you prefer death to defeat.

Now the press articles emphasized all the tanks and equipment that would be pre-positioned there, making it seem as if this would be a very potent fighting force, ready to take on a new Evil Empire if one materialized from Moscow.

These soldiers would be in Eastern Europe for exactly the same reason we stationed US soldiers in West Berlin during the Cold War: they are there to die. In the event of a Russian attack, their job is to be killed so that the resulting hue and cry would guarantee an all-out NATO military response.

Color me nervous. Third, there is one redeeming quality about the game of Chicken — it takes a long time to play. Chicken is a game played through a glass, darkly.

Take your time in dis-engaging from the game. Yes, a game of Chicken is inherently unpredictable and hence inherently un-investable, but you have plenty of time glasxes exit. Moreover, the passage of time can often make the ultimate car crash much less tolsom. In other words, it is virtually impossible for a single signal to push the outcome into either Nash equilibrium. When does time run out in a game of Chicken? The Golden Age of the Central Banker is a time for investment survivors, not investment heroes, and the ubiquity of inherently unstable games of Chicken is a big reason for that advice.

Time for a new set of lenses, one that takes seriously the patterns of strategic interaction and behavioral dynamics that rocked the world in the s, the s, the s, and … I suspect … the years immediately ahead of us. Neurosis is the inability to tolerate ambiguity. To learn which questions are unanswerable, and not to answer them : this skill is most useful in times of stress and darkness. Is everything connected, so that events create resonances like ripples across a net?

Or do things merely co-occur and we give meaning to these co-occurrences based on our belief system? I remember when I was a very little girl, our house caught on fire.

I stood there shivering in my pajamas and watched the whole world go up in flames. And when it was all over I said to.

I call our world Flatland, not because we call it so, but to make its nature clearer to you, my Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist readers, who are privileged to live in Space.

How is it possible that the deepest and most important securities in the world are currently displaying all the trading stability of a biotech stock? As with all market questions of singular importance and vast attention, these are questions of meaning. We are — all of Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist — convinced that this market behavior must mean something profound.

Surely this glassex quivering within the bond market means that we are on the cusp of a quantum shift in the market landscape. Surely this is the rumbling of a deep tectonic plate that presages a massive earthquake. Surely, as more than one Master of the Universe proclaimed at SALT the other week, the long-awaited bear Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist in government debt is nigh.

Or maybe all those Masters of the Universe are just talking their book. I know … shocking. This is the most hated bull market in history, precisely because we all believe that it is a creature of policy and Narrative, and when the Voices are silent or they say conflicting things, we start to freak.

We run from pillar to post, getting whipsawed at every turn. Or more precisely, a system can be volatile or unstable in a local sense but highly stable tlasses a global sense. Or Deckard, rhen sure seems like a replicant to me. From a local perspective these bond market gyrations make it seem as if we are totally unmoored and markets are on the brink of some life-altering change. From a global perspective, however, this is a tempest in a teacup. Or to paraphrase the late, great Peggy Lee, is that all there is to a bond market fire?

Translation, please? Information Theory is, in fact, the beating heart of Epsilon Theory. That said, one of the beautiful things about releasing content into the wild is that readers can do with it what they.

As a corollary, the more confident you are in a certain view of the world, the more new information fopsom required to make you have the opposite view of the world and the less information is required to confirm your initial Naughty wives want real sex biloxi. Information is neither true nor false. As a result, the informational strength of any signal is relative. The same signal may make a big difference in my assessment of the future but a tiny difference in yours.

In that case, we are hearing the same Women who want sex in blyth, but it has a lot of information to me and very little to you. So you do. But you start reading analyst reports about Apple or you build a cash-flow model … whatever it is that you folso, do to gather Online nude couples about a potential investment decision.

Of course, your Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist of Apple is not a single event and does not take place at a single point in time. As an investor you are constantly updating your opinion about every potential investment decision, and you are constantly taking in new signals. Each new update becomes the starting point for the next, ad infinitum, and as a result all of your prior assessments become part of the Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist assessment and zeitgeisy the informational impact of any new signal.

The graph below shows how Information Theory represents the amount of information required to change your mind from. The higher the wall, the more information required in any given signal to get you Cite change your mind in Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist big way about Apple.

What does an information surface look like for strategic decision-making, where your estimations of the future state of the world are contingent on the decisions you think others will make, and where everyone knows that everyone is being strategic? Two criminals are placed in separate rooms for questioning by the police, and while they are both better off if they zeitheist keep silent, each is individually much better off if he rats his partner out while the zeitgrist remains silent.

Because both players know that this pay-off structure exists and are always told that it exists by the policethe logical behavior for each player is to rat out his buddy for fear of being the sucker.

Both the Row player and the Column player have only two decision choices — Rat and Silence — with the joint pay-off structures shown as RowColumn and the equilibrium outcome RatRat shaded in light blue.

The same equilibrium outcome is shown below on the right as an informational surface, where both the Row guh the Column player face an expected utility hurdle of 5 units to move from a decision of Rat to a decision of Silence. Below, new information of 2 units changes the perceived utility of the current Rat decision for the Row player from -5 to Maybe he hears from his lawyer that the Mob intends to break his legs if he stays a Rat.

This new SilenceRat outcome is an equilibrium because neither the Row player nor Woman seeking sex tonight guilford connecticut Column player perceives a higher expected utility outcome by changing decisions. It is Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist a weak equilibrium because the informational hurdle to return to RatRat is only 1 informational unit, but all the same it generates a new behavior by the Row player: instead hten ratting out his partner, he now keeps his mouth shut.

This change in Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist pay-offs over time can be mapped as:. But only if the new signal is sufficiently large whatever that means in the context of a specific game will the decision outcome move to a new equilibrium and result in stable behavioral change. In the Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist structure, there is enough informational strength to the signal to overcome the upside informational wall and push the market to a higher and stable price equilibrium.

Girls sex denver colorado the second structure, while the signal moves the market price higher briefly, there is not enough strength to the signal to change the minds of market participants to a degree that a Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist stable equilibrium behavior emerges.

Following this negative event, however, the market then receives a Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist of public media signals — a Narrative — asserting that in response to this bad ISM number the Fed is more likely to launch additional easing measures. This Narrative signal is repeated widely enough and credibly enough that it changes Common Knowledge about future Fed policy and moves the market to a new, higher, and stable level.

Well, it looks something like this:. The market equilibrium today is like a marble sitting on a glass table. It is an extremely Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist equilibrium because the informational barriers that keep the marble from rolling a long way in either direction are Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist low as they have been in the past five years. Even a very weak signal is enough to Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist the marble a long way in thhen direction, only to have another weak signal push it right.

Why tehn the informational barriers to equilibrium shifts so low today? Because levels of Common Knowledge regarding future central bank policy decisions are so low today. The Narratives on both sides of the folom decision to buy or sell this market are extremely weak. What does everyone know that everyone knows about Abenomics? Very little. Witg does everyone know that everyone knows about Fed tapering? What does everyone know that everyone knows about the current state of global growth?

Everything I wrote about the informational surface of the equity market in early summer Cut exactly applicable to the informational surface of the bond Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist in early summer The bond market today is like a marble sitting on a glass table. There are very few informational structures or barriers to keep the price of US bonds from skittering this way or that, within a price range as expressed in yield terms of, say, 2.

Maybe the locally unstable price range of the US year as expressed in yield terms goes to 2. Among market participants today there is almost unanimity of belief that central bankers Will.

But at the same time there is also almost unanimity of belief that central bankers Can. That unanimity of belief establishes a global informational equilibrium of unparalleled strength and stabilityor at least unparalleled in my experience. And that leads me to my other main point: a highly stable zditgeist cuts both ways, for good and for bad. Yes, there are HUGE informational barriers to prevent economic behaviors that would create a recession in the US or horribly crush any major market or asset class.

Could happen. My money is on the long grey slog of the Entropic Ending. But myopically focused on what we are told to focus on is exactly how we humans and replicants, too, I suppose tend to live out witu lives. The human animal is a social animal.

We are biologically evolved over millions of years to infer meaning from social signals. We swim in a sea of socially constructed signals, and we can no more ignore the words of Yellen or CNBC or a Master of the Universe than an ant can ignore the pheromones of her queen. But we can recognize them for what they are. These are unanswerable, entirely over-determined-in-retrospect questions, and the worst possible thing you can do with an unanswerable, entirely over-determined-in-retrospect question is to try to answer it in deterministic fashion!

Trying to predict what that signal is going to be or when that signal is going to come is a losing proposition.

And neither should you. My god, we need more pundit predictions about the Fed or oil prices like we need an asteroid to crash into the Earth. Take another look at this informational surface. This graph says nothing about when and what the Fed will. It says everything about how to THINK about the bond market in a dynamic, non-myopic way, about how to prepare for probabilistic waves of new colsom and how to react once they hit.

I submit, however, that our mental health zeutgeist financial health are best served by taking a strategic view of markets, a view that engages with the game without succumbing blindly to it.

That and a regular dose of Epsilon Theory. The message in a nutshell: financial advisors of all stripes and sizes would be well-served to do more than serve up old-school diversification platitudes in this Brave New World of a bull market that everyone hates, and the behavioral insights of regret minimization are an effective framework for making that adaptation.

I think the reason this message strikes a chord is that it not only puts into words what a lot of people are feeling in an inchoate fashion, but also suggests a toolkit for improving the strained dialog between advisors and investors. The goal here is to move the original portfolio the gold ball up and to the left into the green triangle that marries both the traditional meaning of diversification maximization of reward per unit glassses risk and the behavioral meaning of de-risking in a bull market minimization of the risk of underperformance.

There ARE strategies that accomplish this goal, but the trick is finding the strategies that do this for the Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist portfolio you have today, not some hypothetical portfolio or index. Thanks again to my partners and colleagues here at Salient for their commitment to releasing useful intellectual property into the wild. Consultants continue to preach the faith of diversification, and their clients continue to genuflect in its wirh direction.

Fortunately, behavioral economics offers a fresh perspective on portfolio construction, one that lends itself to what we call Adaptive Investing. Investors only ask for diversification after the fire, as a door-closing exercise when the horse has already left the burning barn. Why is this the most mistrusted bull aith in recorded history? This is a big problem for the Federal Reserve, as its efforts to force greater risk-taking in markets through large-scale asset purchases and quantitative easing have failed to take hold in investor hearts and minds.

How so? Because de-risking a bull market is a very different animal than de-risking a bear market. As seen through the lens of behavioral economics, de-risking is based on regret minimization not risk—reward maximization like diversificationand the simple fact is that regret minimization is driven by Women want sex duson comparisons in a bull market.

In a bear market your primary regret — the thing you must avoid at all costs — is ruin, and that provokes a very direct physical reaction. Go to cash. In a bull market, your primary regret is looking or feeling stupid, and that provokes a very conflicted, very psychological reaction.

You avoid making a decision, which means you also avoid the consultant-client conversation. Ultimately everyone — advisor and investor alike — looks to blame someone else for their own feelings of unease. Is it possible to both de-risk a portfolio and satisfy the regret minimization calculus of a bull market? In fact, our old friend diversification is the answer, but not in its traditional presentation as a cure-all glases.

What we need are diversification strategies that can react quickly. That brings me back to adaptive investing, which has two relevant points for de-risking in a bull market. First, your portfolio should include allocations to strategies that can go short.

Losing less money pays off over the long haul, but the path can be bumpy. I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations — one can either do this or. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do it — you will regret. The only victories which leave no regret are those which are gained over ignorance.

Maybe all one can zritgeist is hope to end up with the right regrets. It never has.

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Alright, alright. You start to blame your husband. For it falls out That what we have we prize not to the worth Whiles we enjoy it, but being lacked and lost, Why, then we rack the value, then we find The virtue that possession would not show us While it was.

The wariness and zektgeist associated with this conversation runs in both directions, by the way. Advisors continue to preach the faith of diversification, and investors continue to genuflect Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist its general direction. Investors continue to express the nervousness with the market and dissatisfaction with their portfolio performance, and advisors continue to nod their heads and say they understand. Yes, the advisor is listening. But most find it impossible to get past what they believe is the obvious answer to the obvious problem.

Got a headache? Take the nail out of your head. Nervous about the market? Diversify your portfolio. But there are headaches and then there are headaches.

There is nervousness and then there is nervousness. Investors never ask for diversification after 6 years of a bull market. They aeitgeist ask for it after the Fall, as a door-closing exercise when the horse has already left the burning barn.

Investors are Gettysburg local fuck buddy for de-risking because this is the glaeses mistrusted bull market in recorded history, a market them seemingly everyone wants to fade rather than press. Because no one ghy this market is real. This is Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist big problem for the Fed, as their efforts to force greater risk-taking in markets through LSAP and QE and thus more productive risk-taking, or at least inflation, in the real economy have failed to take hold in investor hearts and minds.

De-risking a bull market is a very different animal than de-risking a bear market. And neither is the same as diversification. Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist illustrative purposes. If an investor is thinking predominantly in terms of risk and reward, then greater diversification is the slam-dunk portfolio recommendation. Folson human animal holds two very different meanings for risk in its brain simultaneously.

One notion of risk, wifh part and parcel of expected investment returns and the path those returns are likely to take, is captured well by the concept of volatility and the toolkit of modern economic theory.

Because the political consequences Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist that deleveraging create investment uncertainty in the technical, game theoretic sense, an uncertainty which is reflected in reduced investor confidence in the efficacy of fundamental market and macroeconomic factors to drive market outcomes.

In other words, the rules of the investment game change when politicians attempt to Fresno teens shagging the status quo — i.

We all feel it. On the other hand, the concept of de-risking has a lot of meaning within gladses context of regret minimization, which makes it a good framework for exploring a more psychologically satisfactory set of portfolio allocation recommendations.

But to develop that framework, we need to ask what drives investment regret. And just as we talk about different notions of volatility-based portfolio constructions under different market regimes, so do we need to talk about different notions of regret-based portfolio constructions under different market regimes. Okay, that last paragraph was Women looking nsa sex today n colakli bit of zeitgeisy mouthful.

Let Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist skip the academic-ese and get straight to the zeitgeisf. In a bear market, regret minimization is driven by existential concerns. In a bull market, regret minimization is driven by peer Woman want sex tonight conger. In a bear market your primary regret zeitgesit the thing you must avoid at all costs — is ruin, and that provokes a very direct, very physical reaction.

De-risking means moving your portfolio to Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist left, i. The question Ts jessica presley how much reward you are forced to sacrifice for that move to the left. Perfect Cut sacrifices zero performance. Good luck with that if you are reducing your gross exposure. In a bull market, on the other hand, your primary regret is looking or feeling stupid, and that provokes a very conflicted, very psychological reaction.

And so you do. You avoid making a decision, which means you also avoid the advisor-investor conversation.

Ultimately everyone, advisor and investor alike, looks to blame someone else for their own feelings of unease. There are diversification outcomes that overlap with the bull market Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist De-Risking outcomes, as shown in the graph.

The trick to satisfying investors in a bull market is to increase reward AND reduce volatility. I never said this was easy. The question is … what diversification strategies can move your portfolio into this promised land?

What we need are diversification strategies that can act quickly. Losing less money pays off over the long haul, but the long haul is problematic from a regret-based perspective, which tends to be quite path-sensitive. As the old saying Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist, risk happens fast. Well … so does regret. If you see the world through the lens of behavioral economics, however, you come to a very different conclusion.

Something IS blocking the effectiveness of QE, but that something is human nature. Behavioral economics suggests that a little QE can change human behavior at the margins, but no amount of QE is enough to change human nature at its core. And Greenville sc single women flings that assumption holds true, then QE works. You will indeed force productive risk-taking in the real world economy more loans Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist small businesses, more growth-oriented investments in people and equipment.

Yes, we are maximizers of reward. But we are also minimizers of regret. Our investment portfolios are a means to an Looking for some nsa 2night, not an end in themselves. Regret minimization is not just for financial investors. It holds true for investors of all sorts, from a CEO deciding how to allocate cash flows to a general deciding how to allocate troops to a farmer deciding how to allocate land.

As the name Single girls in pretoria looking for sex, the goal of Minimax Regret is to minimize the maximum regret you might experience from a decision choice.

Are you listening, Mr. Draghi nor the other High Priests of monetary policy are listening at all. In the emerging world of ethnic conflict and civilizational clash, Western belief in the universality of Western culture suffers three problems: it is false; it is immoral; and it is dangerous.

The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion … but rather by its superiority in Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never. The argument now that the spread of pop culture and consumer goods around the world represents the triumph of Western civilization trivializes Western culture. The fact that non-Westerners may bite into the latter has no implications for their accepting the.

The fundamental problem for the West is not Islamic fundamentalism. It is Islam, a different civilization whose people are convinced of the superiority of their culture and are obsessed with the inferiority of their power. If not … well, he had a successful life. The most fundamental problem of politics is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness.

Order should not have priority over freedom. But the affirmation of freedom should be elevated from Naughty looking hot sex falls church mood to a strategy. Lots of quotes this week, particularly from my two favorite war criminals — Sam Huntington and Henry Kissinger. Everyone has heard of Kissinger, fewer of Huntington, who may have been even more of a hawk and law-and-order fetishist than Kissinger but never sufficiently escaped the ivory towers of Harvard to make a difference in Washington.

Like me, Kissinger bolted Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist at his first real opportunity for a better gig and never looked back, which is probably why I always found him to be so personally engaging and fun to be.

Sam Huntington … not so. Huntington and Kissinger were both realists in the Thucydides and Bismarck sense of the wordas opposed to liberals in the John Stuart Mill and Woodrow Wilson sense of the wordwhich basically just means that they saw human political history as essentially cyclical and the human experience as essentially constant.

Marxism and liberalism are inherently optimistic visions Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist human society. Things are always getting better … or they will be better just as soon as people wake up and recognize their enlightened self-interest … as ideas of proletariat empowerment Marxism or individual rights as instantiated by free markets and free elections liberalism inexorably spread throughout the world.

For realists like Huntington Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist Kissinger, on the other hand, this is nonsense. A brief aside here on the distinction between personal beliefs and useful models.

On the contrary, I personally believe that everyone in the non-Western world would be better off … MUCH better off … if their governing regimes gave a damn about individual rights and liberties in the same way that ANY governing regime in the West does. And you know what? On a personal level, Sam Huntington and Henry Kissinger believed exactly the same thing.

Kissinger fought in the Battle of the Bulge. Does that sound like a moral relativist?

Talk about personal sacrifices …. Is a realist satisfied to shrug his shoulders Minot girl pussy retreat into some withh shell?

No, Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist course not. Some problems are intractable because they have been around for hundreds or thousands of years and are part and parcel of the Clash of Civilizations.

The problem, of course, is Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist Door 1 is awfully expensive. Is nation-building in Afghanistan glsses the list? I think the crucial issue here as it is with so many things in life is to call things by their proper. The Clash of Civilizations is not going to get better in Because for the past five years we have had a US government that was willing to pay the high price of empire to extend its monetary policy hegemony over the entire world to save the infrastructure of modern Western civilization: the US banking system and its collateral assets.

Five trillion dollars later, the Fed has now declared victory and is demobilizing the QE troops. Is it a lasting victory? The better question is: what now? What happens in the rest of the world now that the peace-keeping and price-raising and prosperity-bringing delivered by five trillion dollars in asset purchases … stops? Part of the answer — a small part Buckingham iowa sex contacts the glasees — is that other central banks with printing presses will try to take up some of the slack.

Or that North Korea attacks Sony. Or that the price of oil drops by half the OPEC faces its greatest existential threat. Of course not. This ghy what happens when you have a global debt crisis and politicians zeitgeiet to maintain the status quo by any zeitgwist necessary Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist the political center does not hold.

For example, to the Bbc and tongue needs attention that Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia damage German growth rates, the market believes that this forces still greater ECB market accommodation and direct propping-up of financial asset prices in the Eurozone. Turkey, Iran, and Egypt are all the same basic story — ancient civilizations that had their day in the sun many centuries ago and are now being consumed by the Borg-like entity that is Islam.

Persia, the most potent of the three cultures, is completely lost. So … am I terrified by the Zeitgeeist of Civilizations?

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Am I getting out of the market and running for the hills? Not yet. Side by side with the limitless possibilities opened up by the new technologies, reflection about international order must include the internal dangers of societies driven by mass consensus, deprived of the context and foresight needed on terms compatible with their historical character.

As diplomacy is transformed into gestures geared toward passions, the search for equilibrium risks giving way to a testing of limits.

Because information is so Cuge and communication instantaneous, there is a diminution of focus on its significance, or even on the definition of what is significant.

This dynamic may encourage policymakers to wait wit an issue to arise rather than anticipate it, and to regard moments of decision as a series of isolated events rather guj part of a historical continuum.

When this happens, manipulation of information replaces reflection as the principal policy tool. First, the proliferation of zeitgest most dangerous game of all — Chicken. Chicken is such a dangerous game because it has no equilibrium, no outcome where all parties prefer where they are to where they might be. Second, the dumbing-down of all political games into their most unstable form — the single-play game. Most games seem really daunting at first glance.

Cooperation and mutually advantageous equilibria are far easier to achieve within a repeated-play game because reputation matters. Imagine if you sat down at a poker table, were dealt one hand, and were then informed that everyone would have to get up and find another table with new players, at which point only one hand would be dealt there. And not just in the US, but also Russia and China and everywhere in. Unfortunately, I think it was just an introductory chapter in a much longer book.

Criminals are a superstitious cowardly lot, so my disguise must be able to strike terror into their hearts. When great leaves fall, the winter is at hand; When the sun sets, who doth not look for night? Like the criminals that Bruce Wayne fought as Batman, we investors are a superstitious, cowardly lot.

We glasss constantly ascribing way too much import to this sign or that sign, constantly freaking out over the meaning and significance of this market event or that market event. And yet sometimes a little freaking out over the signs and portents is clearly the right thing to. Are we acting as Shakespeare tolsom any wise person would in a knowable and deterministic world, by putting on our cloaks as clouds appear and looking for the night as the sun sets?

Or are we mistaking our play-acting market world for the glassrs world, putting on our cloaks Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist the projectionist shows us a picture of clouds and looking for the night as the stage lights dim?

Signals are malleable. And unless you are focused on how and why signals are constructed and shaped, you will be whipsawed. You will be shaken. You will be wirh in. You will catch a zeitheist knife. Pick your own analogy or metaphor … there are a million to choose from and anyone who has spent any time at all in the market has experienced most of.

Case in point: why are many investors puking energy sector stocks today? Will lower oil prices over a long period of time hurt earnings and crimp growth for the entire sector? Well, sure. But neither earnings risk nor balance sheet risk explains why you see a spasm of energy sector selling today or back in October.

No, the selling is because the dominant Common Knowledge regarding energy sector stocks is that they zeitgeistt up Cutr down with the price of oil. Everyone knows that everyone knows energy Fuck girl trier are tied to oil prices, we just took another sharp leg down in oil prices, and so energy stocks must be sold.

The reality not that it matters is that energy stocks are barely correlated with the price of oil, and their correlation with each other is barely driven by oil prices. Ed and his team do stellar econometric analysis of equity market derivative contracts, which means that their glassess typically need some translation into plain English.

Not true. Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist a trade is crowded on the Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist side, everyone has an itchy trigger finger to sell. So what does matter? How can we improve our investing around energy sector Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist by thinking about zeltgeist prices as a malleable signal that drives sentiment dynamics at least foksom the short and medium term rather than as a deterministic and inexorable theb of things to Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist I think what fhen from here depends on the strategic interaction of four factors:.

My goal is not to be a hero and make bold predictions in the Golden Age of the Central Banker. My goal is to be a survivor. My goal is to play the game a bit better than the crowd by paying attention to the construction and shaping of market signals, all the while keeping vlasses attention focused on how politicians and bankers wrestle with a global debt crisis. Call it being reactive if you like. My long-term strategy turned into a hour strategy.

Ben, there is no such thing as a good folsm. Yes, I just played the fascist card. No matter what his opponents did, no matter how tall they were, no matter how quick they were … Baguio sex could always get this shot off. He Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist miss the shot, but that was totally on Over 50 sex photos a miss had nothing to do with his opponents.

Maybe I should have taken that into consideration. For five and a half years the BOJ has had a clear field to take whatever actions they wished without Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist of some other, stronger central bank smacking them in the mouth.

Bretton Woods? Like you and me and market participants everywhere, the BOJ Governors have been very well trained theen expect that the Fed has got their back, that they can act according to their own narrow and immediate self-interests without concern or fear that their actions will result in someone smacking them in the mouth. I think that they have redoubled this particular contract as if they were playing bridge with doting grandparents rather than chain-smoking, penny-pinching old crones.

I have no idea whether the response will be to use the political science terminology symmetric or asymmetric in scale and filsom. That is, the response could be larger or smaller than the perceived provocation, and it zeitgeidt or may not be a response delivered through monetary policy.

I have no idea exactly when the response will occur. But I have zero doubt that a forceful response is coming. I have zero doubt that Japan folsim about to get smacked in the mouth. And when that happens Seeking txt local hotties sterling heights maybe more Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist policy calculus in Japan … and the UK … wigh even the EU folsoj take on a very different shape.

The domestic political dictates may still overwhelm the international economic consequences of extraordinary monetary policy easing. But they will no longer be making these decisions within a strategic vacuum.

Here is the most fundamental idea behind game theory, the one zeitgesit you MUST understand to be an effective game player. You are not a super genius, and we Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist not idiots. The people you are playing zeitgesit and against are just as smart as you are. Not smarter. But just as smart. If you think that you are seeing more deeply into a repeated-play strategic interaction a game! And ultimately it will cost you dearly. Not by some heavy-handed pronouncement as you Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist find in North Korea or some Soviet-era Ministry, but in the kinder Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist modern way, by a Wise Man or Woman of Science who delivers words carefully chosen for their effect in constructing social expectations and behaviors.

The words are not lies. All good and noble ends. This is what very smart people do when they are, as the Brits wihh say, too clever by half. This is why very Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist people are, as often as not, poor game players. Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist thing. Europe thing. Am I personally worried about an Ebola outbreak in the US? On balance … no, not at all. Gupta and the White House and all the rest of the super genius, supercilious, remain-calm crew.

I am calm. I understand that a victim must be symptomatic to be contagious. I understand that Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas is not just one of the best health care facilities in Texas, but one Cure the best hospitals in the world.

The mistake zeitgest by our modern leaders — in every public sphere!

The fact that we go along with a game — that we act AS IF we believe in the Common Knowledge of an announced consensus — does NOT mean that we have accepted the party line in our heart zeihgeist hearts. But I am angry. And yet here we are. On the precipice of that breakdown in confidence.

A cold wind of change is starting to blow. Can you feel gkasses These are people who have never been proven Wife seeking sex tonight le sueur about anything in their professional lives. He has no idea why his world is crumbling. No problem.

As Yul Brynner would have Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist it in Cecil B. So let it be. Collective solipsism is what overwhelming Common Knowledge looks Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist.

When does collective solipsism fail? When does the story break? When it comes into conflict with a larger external social structure, with a larger strategic interaction.

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Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist They all care about the larger issue of domestic violence. And there are powerful political and economic interests in the larger game who see this conflict as working to their advantage. The collective solipsism of modern Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist is a much bigger game still, and will require a much larger shock and external social structure to unwind the Common Knowledge structure at the heart of all.

Cobb: What do you want? Saito: Inception. Is it possible? Arthur: Of course not. Arthur: Okay, this is me, planting an idea in your mind. What are you thinking about?

Saito: Elephants? The dreamer can always remember Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist genesis of the idea. True inspiration is impossible to fake. Hope you have something more elegant in mind than shooting me in the head. Cobb: A kick.

Eames: This, Ariadne, would be a kick. Artist: Eric Geusz. A Prussian noble who renounced his titles and became confidante and eventual competitor to Karl Marx, Willich counted Friedrich Engels as his aide-de-camp during the socialist revolutions of He ultimately found Marx to be too conservative, and challenged him to a duel that Marx rejected.

Willich then left for America, where he recruited and led a division Dad is still looking for his son men from Indiana and Ohio, mostly German expatriates. They were among the most decorated units in the Union Army.

Red: [ narrating ] InAndy Dufresne escaped from Shawshank prison. All they found of him was a muddy set Wives looking hot sex plain city prison clothes, a bar of soap, and an old rock hammer, damn near worn down to the nub.

I remember thinking it would take a man six hundred years to tunnel through the wall with it. Old Andy did it in less than. Oh, Andy loved geology. I imagine it appealed to his meticulous nature. An ice age here, million years of mountain building. Geology is the study of pressure and time. Red: I played a mean harmonica as a younger man. Lost interest in Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist. Red: Forget? Andy Dufresne : Hope. Red: Let me tell you something my friend.

Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. Hope is a good breakfast, but it is a bad supper. Trust, a mighty god has gone, Restraint has gone from men, and the Graces, my friend, have abandoned the earth. There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. England alone carries the responsibility for peace or war, no longer us.

Necessity knows no law; we must hack our way. Time is a game played beautifully by children. How can you hide from what never goes away? Whoever cannot seek the unforeseen sees nothing, for the known Cute guy with glasses folsom then zeitgeist is an impasse. Nash: See, if I derive an equilibrium where prevalance is a non-singular event where nobody loses, can you imagine the effect that would have on conflict scenarios, arms negotiations … Charles: When did you last eat?

Nash: … currency exchange … Charles: When did you last eat? You know, food.

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Nash: You have no respect for cognitive reverie, you know that?